21st Century Security and CPTED, 2nd Edition

173

11

Problem Seeking before

Problem Solving

Assessing Threats and Risks

EVALUATING TERROR AND CRIMINAL THREATS

To stop a terrorist or physical attack on a building is very difcult. Any building or site can be

breached or destroyed with enough planning, resources, and intention. However, the more secure

the building or site and the better the building is designed to withstand an attack, the better the

oddsthe building will not be attacked or suffer less damage if attacked. Terrorists often select tar-

gets that have some value as a target, such as an iconic commercial property, symbolic government

building, or structure likely to inict signicant emotional or economic damage such as a shopping

mall or major transportation hub (FEMA 426, 2003, pp. 1–21).

In order to have insight into the range of threat possibilities, assistance should be sought from

security professionals, law enforcement, crime prevention through environmental design (CPTED)

practitioners, counterterror specialists, emergency management, local re departments, and other

agencies that would be relevant for the assets to be protected.

An analysis of the following factors should be performed to determine the nature and composi-

tion of various threat sources:

1. Identication of threats

2. Specicity of threats

3. Possible motivation(s)

4. Asset attractiveness to adversaries

5. Adversaries’ possible tactics and skill level

6. Adversaries’ desired results

FEMA 426 (2003, pp. 1–22) experts suggest that there are ve factors to evaluate terrorist threats

in your environment:

1. Existence of hostile persons or organizations to the assets. Who are they and are they

present near the asset?

2. Capability of the aggressors to carry off an attack to the prescribed asset. Is there a history

of constructive or actual notice of criminal or terrorist activity in your area or building type?

CONTENTS

Evaluating Terror and Criminal Threats......................................................................................... 173

Threat Analysis .............................................................................................................................. 174

Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 181

References ...................................................................................................................................... 181