Advanced Positioning, Flow, and Sentiment Analysis in Commodity Markets, 2nd Edition

INTRODUCTION

This book focuses on Positioning Analysis. It is based on new material, but also updates and builds significantly on some of the work in the previous book, Positioning Analysis in Commodity Markets – Bridging Fundamental and Technical Analysis, by Mark Keenan. New material includes analytics based on the analysis of flow, the decomposition of trading flows, trading activity in the Chinese commodity markets, the inclusion of newsflow into Positioning Analysis, and how machine learning can provide insight into trading relationships.¹

The ideas, insights, and concepts behind the signals, indicators, models – collectively the analyses – in this book have been developed over the last 20 years throughout a variety of different market conditions and regime changes. In many cases, their construction is unique, but in all cases, the approach is robust, intuitive, and accessible to commodity market participants and risk managers on a variety of levels and in different areas of the market.

The book is restricted to the commodity derivatives markets only, and specifically to exchange-traded futures and options. The application of the analyses can, however, be applied to all commodity-related assets, including commodity derivatives, commodity over-the-counter (OTC) markets, associated equities, and instruments on commodity-related companies.

Behavioural patterns driven by positioning and flow dynamics can change and evolve as different types of market participants enter and ...