Advances in Business Statistics, Methods and Data Collection

32Minimizing Revisions for a Monthly Economic Indicator

Nicole Czaplicki, Stephen Kaputa, and Laura Bechtel

Economic Statistical Methods Division, US Census Bureau, Washington, DC, USA

32.1 Introduction

National Statistical Institutes (NSIs) provide trusted measures of the social, demographic, and economic environment of the nation at a given point in time. Economic indicators are among the signature data products released by NSIs and are inputs into notable economic measures including price indices, gross domestic product (GDP), and national accounts. These statistics become headline news, especially in times of economic uncertainty. Financial markets shift upon their release. Policymakers, business leaders, and economists use today's indicators in decisions that shape the economic realities of tomorrow. In other words, the importance of economic indicators cannot be overstated.

Indicator programs are characterized by a high‐frequency data collection (monthly or quarterly) of a small number of variables. For data users, timely data is prized, as the utility of these statistics diminishes as more time elapses between the end of the reference period and the data release. To meet this need, it is common for NSIs to release advance estimates of key data items (“early indicators”) soon after the reference period ends, with revised estimates released when more data becomes available. The media reports on changes between these early indicators and their prior period estimates, and ...