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Agile Estimating and Planning by Mike Cohn

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Chapter 6. Techniques for Estimating

“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.”

—Niels Bohr, Danish physicist

The more effort we put into something, the better the result. Right? Perhaps, but we often need to expend just a fraction of that effort to get adequate results. For example, my car is dirty, and I need to wash it. If I wash it myself, I’ll spend about an hour on it, which will be enough to wash the exterior, vacuum the interior, and clean the windows. For a one-hour investment, I’ll have a fairly clean car.

On the other hand, I could call a car-detailing service and have them wash my car. They’ll spend four hours on it. They do everything I do but much more thoroughly. They’ll also wax the car, shine the dashboard, ...

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