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Anatomy of the Bear: Lessons from Wall Street's four great bottoms by Russell Napier

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The road to June 1949

The world in 1949 was a very different place than it had been in 1932. Hitler, whose attempt to become President of Germany had failed in 1932, was dead and so were 55 million people killed in the world’s bloodiest conflict. Over the period, the United States of America had increased its standing military force from a quarter of a million in 1932 to more than 12 million by 1945. Some 300,000 who left America to fight in the war did not return alive.

By 1949 more than 10 million Americans had left the military in search of civilian employment. In financial terms, the key changes were that the government now accounted for a much larger proportion of economic activity and that the investing public was once again a large ...

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