O'Reilly logo

Anatomy of the Bear: Lessons from Wall Street's four great bottoms by Russell Napier

Stay ahead with the world's most comprehensive technology and business learning platform.

With Safari, you learn the way you learn best. Get unlimited access to videos, live online training, learning paths, books, tutorials, and more.

Start Free Trial

No credit card required

At the bottom with the bear - Summer 1982

Oil going up takes everything up with it… It’s just like the Weimar thing, people’ savings are being washed right down the tube, everybody agrees there’s a recession coming to curl your hair.

John Updike, Rabbit is Rich

A prolonged bear market reduced equities to good value in the summer of 1982. By August, the DJIA had returned to a level first seen in April 1964. In real terms, the capital index was back to April 1928, and just 22% above the heights of 1916. Equities were cheap. Using year-end data, the q ratio was just 0.38x, and adjusting for the low level of the market in the middle of 1982 it was probably nearer 0.27x. The cyclically adjusted PE of 9.9x, calculated using the ten-year rolling-earnings ...

With Safari, you learn the way you learn best. Get unlimited access to videos, live online training, learning paths, books, interactive tutorials, and more.

Start Free Trial

No credit card required