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Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science, 2nd Edition by Colin Aitken, Paolo Garbolino, Silvia Bozza, Alex Biedermann, Franco Taroni

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10.5.3 Pre-assessment for inspection of small consignments

Consider a case that involves a small consignment of size 15 and suppose that it is of interest to gather further information for inference about the proportion of positives in the consignment. A given customer, such as an investigating magistrate, may consider the option of paying for the analysis of 5 units but may remain undecided about whether or not to proceed. In particular, the official may be unclear about the impact that various findings may have on the case. The forensic scientist may thus be requested to evaluate – prior to the examination – the probabilities for various outcomes and their associated degree of support in favour of the customer's proposition, as opposed to a given alternative. Such information can help officials in their decision to allocate monetary resources.

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