Best Possible Outcome

INTRODUCTION

Most business leaders aren't required to manage the aftermath of bomb attacks. The crises they manage are often much more complex.

The front page of any newspaper can be a good place to start when seeking to understand the range of issues business leaders must navigate. Unfortunately, it is often where you will find stories of leaders failing to achieve the best outcome. By failing to understand the breadth and complexity of the environment they face, they allow circumstances to get beyond their ability for decision-making and action.

The range of drivers of uncertainty and crisis is impossible to capture fully. Over the past few years some of the key drivers that have hit the headlines, had international impact and produced trickle-down effects into many aspects of our lives and businesses. These have included:

• health and illness, notably the COVID-19 pandemic
• extreme weather events
• security and conflict
• cyber crime
• product failure
• economic and supply chain instability
• maritime and aircraft disasters.

In a highly volatile world, there are many scales with which to define a crisis situation. Here I present just two scales and examples to demonstrate.

LEVELS OF DISORDER

Simple and complicated problems can generally be managed as part of any business-as-usual activities. Complex problems are more challenging. In complex and chaotic environments, understanding the problem, let alone finding a solution, can itself be extremely challenging.

Understanding and defining ...