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Building Algorithmic Trading Systems: A Trader's Journey From Data Mining to Monte Carlo Simulation to Live Trading, + Website by Kevin J. Davey

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CHAPTER 2 Enough Is Enough

Before I continue with my saga of losing money trading futures, you might be asking yourself, “Why was it so tough for this guy? I see ads every day for futures and forex trading, and it seems like any half-brained nitwit can make money easily. Why is this Kevin guy such a loser?” Good question, but let me ask it a different way: “Assuming trading is that easy—that you can spend five minutes a day entering orders on your computer, while relaxing on a white sand Caribbean beach—why isn’t the person selling you this miraculous system for $99 doing the same thing? Why is he spending his time practically giving away his secrets, instead of just trading his own ever-growing mountain of money?”

The answer should not surprise you: trading is tough, even for the so-called gurus, most of whom are not gurus in any sense of the word. I’d estimate that over 90 percent of the trading systems for sale are junk (and I am being generous here— the actual number might be closer to 99 percent), marketed by people who figured out that selling to newbie traders was far easier, and far more lucrative, than actually trading. The statistics you hear about 80 or 90 percent of traders losing money is no lie, and the reason is that trading is really, really difficult. I hope that by reading about my trading journey and later learning about my trading process, you will get a sense of how challenging it is. At the same time, you’ll come to realize that success in trading is possible ...

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