WAY 33Spread Your Bets: Investing in diversified ideas and opportunities increases your chances of winning.
About the Way
Betting on the future is an overused, yet apt, news headline, whether in the hard sciences (e.g., “China bets big on brain research with massive cash infusion and openness to monkey studies”1 in the journal Science), mainstream business press (e.g., “Google bets on the cloud breaking up”2 from Financial Times), or even academia (e.g., “Elon Musk's Big Bets”3 in a Harvard Business School case study). Across these stories, the bet in question is better defined as a decision made under uncertainty, or even ambiguity, which will have a direct impact on the decision makers. Another phrase often associated with this class of bets is “having skin in the game,” meaning the group or individual is directly involved in the venture, especially financially—and thus more motivated to achieve a successful outcome.
On the convoluted path to imagine, invent, and ship a world‐changing moonshot, a team will inevitably be faced with decisions that may cause them to wonder, is there another way? or can't we try both? The scenario is well known: the team cannot fail yet has no obvious way to know which of their many choices are likely to succeed or even survive. As such, teams under pressure often take their best scientific‐wild‐ass‐guess, which makes any investment of time or money a risky bet on one particular future path. Instead of one big bet, smart teams should aim to place ...
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