Bulletproof Problem Solving

Chapter EightProblem Solving with Long Time Frames and High Uncertainty

As problem solvers, we shuffle through a deck of strategies when we face high uncertainty. We edge into risk, looking for the opportunities to learn before acting precipitously, hedging our bets where we can, and taking steps that build capabilities and future resilience. We know there is value in being systematic and working through a range of potential strategies when faced with uncertainty and long time frames.

As we have seen, the seven‐steps framework is robust and adaptable in addressing a wide range of personal, work, and societal problems. Many of the examples to date exhibit low to moderate uncertainty, where the cost of error is relatively low, and where time frames are relatively short. But there is a class of problems where time periods are long, complexity and uncertainty are high, and the consequences of error are substantial. The case of protecting Pacific salmon that we have looked at in previous chapters is a good example. Outcomes for salmon depend on many variables, including inherently uncertain ones like climate change. Species success plays out over decades rather than months, and the consequences of bad outcomes are broadly felt in human incomes and ecosystem losses. We believe the seven‐steps model is useful for complex problems with high uncertainty, particularly the emphasis on ...