Business Foresight

CHAPTER 2

Figuring Out Uncertainty

Introduction

In this chapter, we cover the following topics:

• The nature of uncertainty

• The arrow of time

• Uncertainty drivers

• The uncertainty—importance grid

• The uncertainty-over-time curve

• Other variables over time (curves)

• Concluding insights

But before we plunge in, I would like to step back a little. When we think of the future, we often contemplate strategy and maybe do not visualize scenarios that will truly anchor ourselves in the future. Strategy to be sure is rooted in the present and the past. I have called it “T – 1 thinking” where thinking about the future is not only embedded in the present but even the past. Here T – 1 thinking means “earlier than the present.”

My argument is not that ...