Business Model Renewal: How to Grow and Prosper by Defying Best Practices and Reinventing Your Strategy

CHAPTER 3Foresight: Betting on Turbulence

A few years ago I attended a certificate program in strategic foresight at the University of Houston. The class consisted of a cadre of individuals from the military, national security, think tanks, corporations, and higher education. This was a highly diverse group whose members shared approaches to anticipating and preparing for the future. It challenged me to think about foresight as a mental model, an expansive collection of thought processes that goes beyond traditional economic, statistical, and business forecasting to include judgment and qualitative inputs. Rather than simply extrapolating current and past trends, foresight is the act of looking forward in an effort to prepare for the future, ...