Change Detection and Image Time-Series Analysis 1

6Fractional Field Image Time Series Modeling and Application to Cyclone Tracking

Abdourrahmane M. ATTO¹, Aluísio PINHEIRO², Guillaume GINOLHAC¹ and Pedro MORETTIN³

¹University Savoie Mont Blanc, Annecy, France

²University of Campinas, Brazil

³University of São Paulo, Brazil

6.1. Introduction

Cyclonic fields are violent atmospheric disturbances associated with swirling winds. These quasi-stochastic fields are the cause of many natural disasters, which motivate early detection methods as well as time monitoring of changing conditions (see, for instance, Chen et al. (2016)). Here, we discuss some methods for time monitoring and prediction of cyclonic fields. Time monitoring will be done by analyzing the cyclonic field’s dynamics and local intensity variations over space and time. Predicting the cyclone’s future state from its present and past dynamics will be made possible through model selection and validation steps.

Satellite imagery is one of the most important sensing tools for regular observations, amongst all the meteorological sources of information available for cyclone monitoring. This is especially true for hurricanes, because of the difficulties in the coverage of large marine areas (Goto et al. 2015; Nastos et al. 2015; Mas et al. 2016). We propose the characterization of cyclonic fields based on satellite image time series.

The analysis of cyclonic fields requires the detection and localization of the cyclone eye and cyclone eyewall, as well as estimating cyclone ...