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China 2020 by Kerry Brown

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Preface

Ten years is barely any time at all. In the great sweep of Chinese history, it hardly registers. Why, therefore, have the hubris to present essays on where China will be in a mere ten years’ time? After all, governments and academics are already working out their scenarios for 2030, or 2040. To them, 2020 is old news.

The scale of what the Chinese are going to do, and the rate at which they are trying to do it, are two very good reasons why a ten-year window into the future is reasonable. In many ways, what is going to happen in China needs to be tracked year by year, rather than decade by decade. Even a book on China in 2015 would be looking at a place with, on current trajectories, a huge increase in GDP, further significant urbanisation, ...

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