Cindynics, The Science of Danger

1Understanding Cindynics

While the methods, studies or standardization commonly used to manage risks have been quite effective, it is undeniable that through the history of accidents and disasters, their effectiveness is still not entirely satisfactory.

In order to fully understand cindynics, it seems useful to examine what its concepts can add to postponing the occurrence of feared events.

Indeed, any risk study currently conducted starts with the knowledge of the dangers existing within the situation under examination. This phase, which is the keystone of a risk study approach, is called the “hazard study”.

Let us recall that the method most often used for risk studies is the one called MADS–MOSAR which involves:

• – a model called “Methodology of Systems Dysfunctioning (MADS)” also called Universe of Danger [PÉR 00];
• – a method called MOSAR, “organized method of systemic risk analysis” that allows the identification of major risk scenarios using methods and tools for operational safety.

The use of the MADS model makes clear the priority given to the search for hazards¹: it uses “systemic modeling by breaking down the installation into sub-systems and systematically searching for the hazards presented by each of them”.

This model is used to establish a hazard qualification grid. ⁷

Concepts linked to cindynics are therefore perfectly aligned with the principle of thinking about danger before paying attention to the risks and the initiating event. However, the hazard research ...