A logic of the future
‘What the vulgar call chance is nothing but a secret and concealed cause.’
David Hume, A Treatise of Human Nature (1739–40)
In my first book, Knowing our Future – the startling case for futurology, I argued that futurology should hold itself accountable to a narrow band of truth ranging from certain knowledge, based on direct causational influences, to highly probable knowledge. This can be visualised.
Figure 14: Narrow band of truth () for futurology on probability scale
On this scale, probability is usually measured ...