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Codebreaking Our Future by Michael Lee

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6

A logic of the future

‘What the vulgar call chance is nothing but a secret and concealed cause.’

David Hume, A Treatise of Human Nature (1739–40)

In my first book, Knowing our Future – the startling case for futurology, I argued that futurology should hold itself accountable to a narrow band of truth ranging from certain knowledge, based on direct causational influences, to highly probable knowledge. This can be visualised.

Figure 14: Narrow band of truth () for futurology on probability scale

On this scale, probability is usually measured ...

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