30
u
STOCKS AND BONDS
S&P 500 has shown a tendency to see strength after February weakness.
March marks the end of the first quarter; we have seen funds taking profits
prior to end-of-quarter, adding to potential late month weakness (page 140).
Beware the Ides of March; St. Patrick’s Day mid-month bullishness typi-
cally fades as the month concludes. Beware, as the 30-year Treasury bond
price has a tendency to continue its decline (page 142) and trade in synch
with stock prices, as the quarter draws to a close. Historically, this is still the
time to be short by selling mid-month strength.
u
ENERGY
After January and February weakness, crude oil begins to strengthen in March
at the outset of its best seven months, March–September. The seasonal best
trade from February is still long through mid-May (pages 26 and 126).
Natural gas prices also remain firm through March; the seasonal best trade
from February is still long as well, heading into late April (page 32).
u
METALS
Gold posts bottoms during March, and this is the time to cover the
seasonal best trade short position from February (page 126). Silver is still
in decline, as our seasonal best trade is holding a short position until late
April (page 28). Copper prices can run higher in March and April, depend-
ing on the price gains from December through late February, which is our
best trade time frame to be long (page 112). Look for a seasonal peak in
April or May (page 48) to make trading decisions.
u
GRAINS
Soybeans during March are still in our best trade long scenario (page 24),
but this month can produce consolidation or a pause in any strong price
gain due to anticipation of the quarterly grain stocks report and the farmer
planting intentions report. Wheat prices are still in a seasonal decline mode
heading into the June harvest lows (page 18). Corn prices tend to defy
gravity and continue higher into late April and early May (pages 98 and 158).
u
SOFTS
Cocoa begins a seasonal decline, instituting a short position in our season-
al best trade category (page 34). Coffee prices tend to see mild corrections
after big up moves in February. This is the “frost scare” season in South
America. Coffee is susceptible to higher prices until the seasonal peak in
May (pages 52 and 170). Sugar prices continue to decline (page 173).
u
MEATS
Front-month live cattle prices tend to post a seasonal high in March.
Producers are liquidating inventories because packers and processors are
preparing for BBQ season (pages 60 and 176). Lean hog prices tend to rise
during March, because demand for ham increases for Easter (page 179).
u
CURRENCIES
The euro currency has revealed a tendency to decline during the second half
of March, 8 out of 12 years (page 126). The Swiss franc also has a ten dency
to see price declines from mid-March through mid-May (page 187). The
British pound has a distinct pattern of doing the opposite of the euro and
Swiss franc; it has a strong tendency to move up against the U.S. dollar in mid-
March (pages 36, 124, and 182). The yen has a strong seasonal tendency to
sell off in mid-March through early April (page 126).
MARCH ALMANAC
SMTW T F S
123 45
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
27 28 29 30 31
MARCH
SMTW T F S
12
3456789
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
17 18 19 20 21 22 23
24 25 26 27 28 29 30
APRIL
Symbol
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
L
S
JY
LH
BP
EC
SF
CC
KC
SB
LC
W
GC
SI
C
S
US
CL
NG
HG
SP
BME
MARCH
STRATEGY
CALENDAR
*
* Graphic representation of
the Commodity Seasonality
Percentage Plays on pages
126 –127.
L = Long Trade, S = Short
Trade. See pages 133–138
for contract symbols.
c01_CTA_2011_pgs_12-119_c01_cta_2011_pgs_12-119 7/21/10 2:02 PM Page 30

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