Commodity Trader's Almanac 2O11

30

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STOCKS AND BONDS

S&P 500 has shown a tendency to see strength after February weakness.

March marks the end of the first quarter; we have seen funds taking profits

prior to end-of-quarter, adding to potential late month weakness (page 140).

Beware the Ides of March; St. Patrick’s Day mid-month bullishness typi-

cally fades as the month concludes. Beware, as the 30-year Treasury bond

price has a tendency to continue its decline (page 142) and trade in synch

with stock prices, as the quarter draws to a close. Historically, this is still the

time to be short by selling mid-month strength.

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ENERGY

After January and February weakness, crude oil begins to strengthen in March

at the outset of its best seven months, March–September. The seasonal best

trade from February is still long through mid-May (pages 26 and 126).

Natural gas prices also remain firm through March; the seasonal best trade

from February is still long as well, heading into late April (page 32).

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METALS

Gold posts bottoms during March, and this is the time to cover the

seasonal best trade short position from February (page 126). Silver is still

in decline, as our seasonal best trade is holding a short position until late

April (page 28). Copper prices can run higher in March and April, depend-

ing on the price gains from December through late February, which is our

best trade time frame to be long (page 112). Look for a seasonal peak in

April or May (page 48) to make trading decisions.

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GRAINS

Soybeans during March are still in our best trade long scenario (page 24),

but this month can produce consolidation or a pause in any strong price

gain due to anticipation of the quarterly grain stocks report and the farmer

planting intentions report. Wheat prices are still in a seasonal decline mode

heading into the June harvest lows (page 18). Corn prices tend to defy

gravity and continue higher into late April and early May (pages 98 and 158).

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SOFTS

Cocoa begins a seasonal decline, instituting a short position in our season-

al best trade category (page 34). Coffee prices tend to see mild corrections

after big up moves in February. This is the “frost scare” season in South

America. Coffee is susceptible to higher prices until the seasonal peak in

May (pages 52 and 170). Sugar prices continue to decline (page 173).

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MEATS

Front-month live cattle prices tend to post a seasonal high in March.

Producers are liquidating inventories because packers and processors are

preparing for BBQ season (pages 60 and 176). Lean hog prices tend to rise

during March, because demand for ham increases for Easter (page 179).

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CURRENCIES

The euro currency has revealed a tendency to decline during the second half

of March, 8 out of 12 years (page 126). The Swiss franc also has a ten dency

to see price declines from mid-March through mid-May (page 187). The

British pound has a distinct pattern of doing the opposite of the euro and

Swiss franc; it has a strong tendency to move up against the U.S. dollar in mid-

March (pages 36, 124, and 182). The yen has a strong seasonal tendency to

sell off in mid-March through early April (page 126).

MARCH ALMANAC

SMTW T F S

123 45

6 7 8 9 10 11 12

13 14 15 16 17 18 19

20 21 22 23 24 25 26

27 28 29 30 31

MARCH

SMTW T F S

12

3456789

10 11 12 13 14 15 16

17 18 19 20 21 22 23

24 25 26 27 28 29 30

APRIL

Symbol

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

L

S

JY

LH

BP

EC

SF

CC

KC

SB

LC

W

GC

SI

C

S

US

CL

NG

HG

SP

BME

MARCH

STRATEGY

CALENDAR

*

* Graphic representation of

the Commodity Seasonality

Percentage Plays on pages

126 –127.

L = Long Trade, S = Short

Trade. See pages 133–138

for contract symbols.

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