Commodity Trader's Almanac 2013: For Active Traders of Futures, Forex, Stocks, Options, and ETFs

JULY ALMANAC

STOCKS AND BONDS

S&P 500 tends to see follow-through weakness in July. Tech stocks generally sell off in July, as this month marks the start of the NASDAQ's worst four months. This weakness weighs on the performance of the S&P 500. In the last 30-year history, selling September S&P 500 on or about the 10th trading day and holding for 7 trading days has reaped a cumulative profit of $44,488, with 19 wins, but 6 losses the last 7 years (page 66). Weakness prevails from month end through October (page 138). 30-year Treasury bond prices are flat to weak, but have tendencies to rally, especially when stocks take a sharp nose dive in July.

ENERGY

Crude oil continues to stay supportive during the month of July. Seasonally, this is one of the best months to get long natural gas. Buy November natural gas futures on or about July 24 and hold until about October 21. In the past 22 years, this trade has worked 12 times, for a success rate of 54.5%. The cumulative profit totals $21,720. Though since it's best gain in 2005 this trade has been a big loser 5 of the last 6 years (page 68). Over the last five years heating oil prices have a tendency to decline from mid-month into ...