MARCH ALMANAC

STOCKS AND BONDS
S&P 500 has shown a tendency to see strength after February weakness. March marks the end of the first quarter; we have seen funds taking profits prior to the end of the quarter, adding to potential late month weakness (page 138). Beware the Ides of March because St. Patrick's Day mid-month bullishness typically fades as the month concludes. 30-year Treasury bond price has a tendency to continue its decline (page 140) and trade in synch with stock prices, as the quarter draws to a close. Historically, this is still the time to be short by selling into mid-month strength.
ENERGY
After January and February weakness, crude oil begins to strengthen in March at the outset of its best seven months, March–September. The seasonal best trade from February is still long through mid-May (pages 26 and 143). Natural gas prices also remain firm through March; the seasonal best trade from February is still long as well, heading into late April (page 32). Heating Oil remains in a seasonally strong period we are holding a long position from February. Late comers can look for a late-month break near St. Patrick's Day to enter a long position lasting into mid-April. ...

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