STOCKS AND BONDS
S&P's often exhibit weakenss mid- to end-of-month, especially after June's quarterly quadruple witching, as illustrated in our seasonal chart (page 138). 30-year Treasury bond prices are weak in June, but tend to recover towards the end of the month from early month losses. Watch for this mid-month reversal, especially when stocks start to make an end-of-month selloff. Buy bonds on second trading day and hold for 10 days. This has a 67.6% win probability with 23 wins in 34 years (page 125). We are still holding onto our top seasonal long from April until late August (page 42).
Seasonally, this is still one of the best seven months, March to September, to be long crude oil. However, June tends to see price consolidations after major price moves in May (page 143). Natural gas prices tend to move lower in June until mid-July, when we typically see the market make its average seasonal low (page 68). Heating oil prices continue to remain in a seasonally weak period, but if we see early-month-weakness prices can post short-term bottoms at month end lasting into mid-July.
Most years gold prices continue in a downtrend, as it is in its ...
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