
71Decision Analysis with Multiple Attributes
Now imagine that your friend John offers perfect information about the
lottery; that is, he can predict the payoff of the uncertain node perfectly.
To analyze the situation, we have to redraw the decision problem with the
uncertainty node in the beginning. The probabilities of the lottery apply to
the information as well;
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that is, there is a 0.3 probability that John will say
that the payoff is $200, and there is a 0.7 probability that John will say that the
payoff is $10. In each case you have a decision between (now) deterministic
choices. As shown in Figure3.16, if the decision maker has a c