Detonate

CHAPTER 7Upend Insight: Customers Can't Tell You What They Believe

Texas Hold 'Em, a variant of the card game poker, has been around since the early 1900s but exploded in popularity in the early 2000s because of exposure on TV, especially the World Series of Poker. Two cards, face down, are dealt to each of the players, who then undergo a round of betting followed by “the flop” where three “community cards” (which all the players can use to make a hand) are revealed face up in the center of the table. Another round of betting happens followed by the revelation of a fourth card (the turn), with a round of betting, and a fifth community card (the river). A final round of betting ensues. At each round of betting, a player can check (choose not to bet) or bet. If they bet, the opponents have three choices – call (match the bet), raise (up the bet), or fold.

Steve recently learned at a charity poker tournament that a truism in poker is that you can't learn anything about your opponents if you don't bet. If you play passively – that is, if you check when you have the opportunity to do so – your opponent controls the pace of the game. They could be strong (have a good hand) or they could be weak – you don't know. If you want to get information about your opponent, you need to force them to make a decision. Making someone commit to a course of action reveals considerably more information than allowing them to defer their action.

This tends to work with experienced players. They would ...