Driving Climate Change

292 Index

Oil (Continued)

formation of, 10

global demand for, 9, 12, 257

heavy, 15–16

nontransportation uses of, 20

production of, 243

unconventional types of, 15–16

Oil consumption, 31, 32f

Oil demand. See Oil supply and

demand

Oil embargoes

of 1973, 12–13

of 1979, 12–13

Oil peaking

ambiguity of, 242–244

description of, 9–11

economic effects of, 26

factors that could affect, 24–25

mitigation scenarios for

candidates, 18–20

crash program mitigation results,

21–24

delayed wedge approximation used

in, 18, 18f

overview of, 17–18

mitigation strategies for

biomass, 16–17

coal liquefaction, 16

energy conservation, 14–15

gas-to-liquids, 16

heavy oil, 15–16

hydrogen, 17

improved oil recovery, 15

oil sands, 15–16

modeling of, 20–21

predictions for, 24–25

price increases secondary to, 14

projections of, 12, 12t

risk management considerations,

24

world production at, 21

Oil price

alternate fuel methods and, 26

increases in, 10, 13, 143

Oil recovery, 15

Oil reserves, 11–12

Oil reservoirs, 10–11, 11f

Oil sands, 15–16

Oil supply and demand

forecasts for, 21

global, 20–21

increases in, 143

modeling of, 21

regional imbalances in, 31, 32f

Oil supply disruptions

description of, 245

economic effects of, 13, 25

history of, 13–14

from terrorist attacks, 245

Options analysis, 250–252

Organization of Economic Cooperation

and Development, 13, 69

Outcome thinking, 239

P

Partitioning, of risk, 241–246

PATP, 53t, 56t

Pennsylvania Department of

Transportation, 139

Political activism, 229

Population growth

in China, 30, 31f

global statistics, 30

Portland Area Comprehensive

Transportation Study, 140

Poverty, 172, 185

Price-Anderson Act, 244

Prius, 84

Public awareness, 202–204

Public health

deterioration of, 130, 135

vehicles miles traveled and, 130,

135

Public opinion

information effects on, 207–208

strength of, 208–209

Public opinion polls, 201

Public support, 214

Public transportation, 192–200. See

also Transportation

Public understanding, 204–207

R

Rational consumers, 219–221

RD&D, 54t, 57t

Real options analysis, 250–252

Reasoned judgment, 223

Rebound effect, 43, 68f, 229

Rickshaws, 185–186

Risk

energy efficiency investing and,

241–242

historical experience and, 240

partitioning of, 241–246

time-dependent nature of, 240

Risk sharing, 244