292 Index
Oil (Continued)
formation of, 10
global demand for, 9, 12, 257
heavy, 15–16
nontransportation uses of, 20
production of, 243
unconventional types of, 15–16
Oil consumption, 31, 32f
Oil demand. See Oil supply and
demand
Oil embargoes
of 1973, 12–13
of 1979, 12–13
Oil peaking
ambiguity of, 242–244
description of, 9–11
economic effects of, 26
factors that could affect, 24–25
mitigation scenarios for
candidates, 18–20
crash program mitigation results,
21–24
delayed wedge approximation used
in, 18, 18f
overview of, 17–18
mitigation strategies for
biomass, 16–17
coal liquefaction, 16
energy conservation, 14–15
gas-to-liquids, 16
heavy oil, 15–16
hydrogen, 17
improved oil recovery, 15
oil sands, 15–16
modeling of, 20–21
predictions for, 24–25
price increases secondary to, 14
projections of, 12, 12t
risk management considerations,
24
world production at, 21
Oil price
alternate fuel methods and, 26
increases in, 10, 13, 143
Oil recovery, 15
Oil reserves, 11–12
Oil reservoirs, 10–11, 11f
Oil sands, 15–16
Oil supply and demand
forecasts for, 21
global, 20–21
increases in, 143
modeling of, 21
regional imbalances in, 31, 32f
Oil supply disruptions
description of, 245
economic effects of, 13, 25
history of, 13–14
from terrorist attacks, 245
Options analysis, 250–252
Organization of Economic Cooperation
and Development, 13, 69
Outcome thinking, 239
P
Partitioning, of risk, 241–246
PATP, 53t, 56t
Pennsylvania Department of
Transportation, 139
Political activism, 229
Population growth
in China, 30, 31f
global statistics, 30
Portland Area Comprehensive
Transportation Study, 140
Poverty, 172, 185
Price-Anderson Act, 244
Prius, 84
Public awareness, 202–204
Public health
deterioration of, 130, 135
vehicles miles traveled and, 130,
135
Public opinion
information effects on, 207–208
strength of, 208–209
Public opinion polls, 201
Public support, 214
Public transportation, 192–200. See
also Transportation
Public understanding, 204–207
R
Rational consumers, 219–221
RD&D, 54t, 57t
Real options analysis, 250–252
Reasoned judgment, 223
Rebound effect, 43, 68f, 229
Rickshaws, 185–186
Risk
energy efficiency investing and,
241–242
historical experience and, 240
partitioning of, 241–246
time-dependent nature of, 240
Risk sharing, 244

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