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Dynamic Risk Analysis in the Chemical and Petroleum Industry

Book Description

Dynamic Risk Analysis in the Chemical and Petroleum Industry focuses on bridging the gap between research and industry by responding to the following questions:

  • What are the most relevant developments of risk analysis?
  • How can these studies help industry in the prevention of major accidents?

Paltrinieri and Khan provide support for professionals who plan to improve risk analysis by introducing innovative techniques and exploiting the potential of data share and process technologies. This concrete reference within an ever-growing variety of innovations will be most helpful to process safety managers, HSE managers, safety engineers and safety engineering students.

This book is divided into four parts. The Introduction provides an overview of the state-of-the-art risk analysis methods and the most up-to-date popular definitions of accident scenarios. The second section on Dynamic Risk Analysis shows the dynamic evolution of risk analysis and covers Hazard Identification, Frequency Analysis, Consequence Analysis and Establishing the Risk Picture. The third section on Interaction with Parallel Disciplines illustrates the interaction between risk analysis and other disciplines from parallel fields, such as the nuclear, the economic and the financial sectors. The final section on Dynamic Risk Management addresses risk management, which may dynamically learn from itself and improve in a spiral process leading to a resilient system.

  • Helps dynamic analysis and management of risk in chemical and process industry
  • Provides industry examples and techniques to assist you with risk- based decision making
  • Addresses also the human, economic and reputational aspects composing the overall risk picture

Table of Contents

  1. Cover image
  2. Title page
  3. Table of Contents
  4. Copyright
  5. Contributors
  6. Preface
  7. Part 1. Introduction
    1. Chapter 1. A Short Overview of Risk Analysis Background and Recent Developments
      1. 1. Introduction
      2. 2. Fundamentals of Risk Analysis
      3. 3. Way Forward: Dynamic Risk Assessment Approaches
      4. 4. Conclusions
    2. Chapter 2. New Definitions of Old Issues and Need for Continuous Improvement
      1. 1. Introduction
      2. 2. Atypical Accident Scenarios
      3. 3. Black Swans
      4. 4. Dragon Kings
      5. 5. Small Things
      6. 6. Conclusions
  8. Part 2. Dynamic Risk Analysis
    1. Section 2.1. Hazard Identification
      1. Chapter 3. Advanced Technique for Dynamic Hazard Identification
        1. 1. Introduction
        2. 2. A Framework for the Identification of Atypical Scenarios
        3. 3. State of the Art
        4. 4. Dynamic Procedure for Atypical Scenarios Identification
        5. 5. Conclusions
      2. Chapter 4. Dynamic Hazard Identification: Tutorial and Examples
        1. 1. Introduction
        2. 2. Methodology Tutorial
        3. 3. Application of the Approach
        4. 4. Conclusions
    2. Section 2.2. Analysis of Initiating Events
      1. Chapter 5. Reactive Approaches of Probability Update Based on Bayesian Methods
        1. 1. Introduction
        2. 2. Bayesian Inference
        3. 3. Bayesian Network
        4. 4. Limited Memory Influence Diagram
        5. 5. Conclusions
      2. Chapter 6. Proactive Approaches of Dynamic Risk Assessment Based on Indicators
        1. 1. Introduction
        2. 2. Proactive and Dynamic Features
        3. 3. Techniques for Development of Indicators
        4. 4. Techniques for Frequency Modification
        5. 5. The Risk Barometer Technique
        6. 6. Conclusions
      3. Chapter 7. Reactive and Proactive Approaches: Tutorials and Example
        1. 1. Introduction
        2. 2. Methodology Tutorial
        3. 3. Application of Reactive and Proactive Approaches
        4. 4. Conclusions
      4. Chapter 8. Comparison and Complementarity between Reactive and Proactive Approaches
        1. 1. Introduction
        2. 2. Benefits and Limitations of Reactive and Proactive Approaches
        3. 3. Comparison and Complementarity of the Two Techniques
        4. 4. Conclusions
    3. Section 2.3. Analysis of Consequences
      1. Chapter 9. Dynamic Consequence Analysis through Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling
        1. 1. Introduction
        2. 2. Implementation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling into Dynamic Risk Assessment
        3. 3. Computational Fluid Dynamic Models for Specific Accidental Scenarios
        4. 4. Conclusions
      2. Chapter 10. Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling: Tutorial and Examples
        1. 1. Introduction
        2. 2. Methodology Tutorial
        3. 3. Application of the Approach
        4. 4. Conclusions
      3. Chapter 11. Assessing the Severity of Runaway Reactions
        1. 1. Introduction
        2. 2. Safety Measures for Runaway Reactions
        3. 3. Analysis of Risks Related to Runaway Reactions
        4. 4. Dynamic Method
        5. 5. Conclusions
      4. Chapter 12. Dynamic Assessment of Runaway Reaction Risk: Tutorial and Examples
        1. 1. Introduction
        2. 2. Methodology Tutorial
        3. 3. Results
        4. 4. Discussion
        5. 5. Conclusions
    4. Section 2.4. Establishing the Risk Picture
      1. Chapter 13. Risk Metrics and Dynamic Risk Visualization
        1. 1. Introduction
        2. 2. Traditional Risk Metrics
        3. 3. Dynamic Risk Visualization
        4. 4. Conclusions
  9. Part 3. Interaction With Parallel Disciplines
    1. Section 3.1. Humans
      1. Chapter 14. Human Reliability Analysis: From the Nuclear to the Petroleum Sector
        1. 1. Introduction
        2. 2. Basic Concepts
        3. 3. Review of Selected Human Reliability Analysis Methods
        4. 4. Human Reliability Analysis Application in the Petroleum Sector
        5. 5. Conclusions
      2. Chapter 15. Human Reliability Analysis in the Petroleum Industry: Tutorial and Examples
        1. 1. Introduction
        2. 2. Methodology Tutorial
        3. 3. Application of SPAR-H
        4. 4. Conclusions
    2. Section 3.2. Costs and Benefits
      1. Chapter 16. Cost-Benefit Analysis of Safety Measures
        1. 1. Introduction
        2. 2. The Foundations of Cost-Benefit Analysis
        3. 3. Prevention Costs
        4. 4. Hypothetical Benefits: Categories of Avoided Accident Costs
        5. 5. Cost-Benefit Analysis
        6. 6. Conclusions
      2. Chapter 17. Cost-Benefit Analysis for Low-Probability, High-Impact Risks: Tutorials and Examples
        1. 1. Introduction
        2. 2. Cost-Benefit Analysis Based on the Disproportion Factor
        3. 3. Cost-Benefit Analysis Based on Multicriteria Decision-Making
        4. 4. Conclusions
    3. Section 3.3. Reputation
      1. Chapter 18. Reputational Damage After Major Accidents
        1. 1. Introduction
        2. 2. Theoretical Background
        3. 3. Estimating the Cost of Reputational Damage
        4. 4. Conclusions
      2. Chapter 19. Estimation of Reputational Damage from Major Accidents: Tutorial and Examples
        1. 1. Introduction
        2. 2. Methodology Tutorial
        3. 3. Application of the Approach
        4. 4. Conclusions
  10. Part 4. Dynamic Risk Management
    1. Chapter 20. Dynamic Risk Management in the Perspective of a Resilient System
      1. 1. Introduction
      2. 2. Background: Complexity and the Notion of Hidden, Dynamic, and Emergent Risks
      3. 3. State of the Art
      4. 4. The SoS Proxy Approach
      5. 5. Conclusions
    2. Conclusions
  11. Index