Electric Power Systems

5

Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

Gregor Giebel

Michael Denhard

5.1    Introduction

Timescales • Wind Power Forecasting Methods • Typical Results

5.2    Time-Series Models

5.3    Meteorological Modeling for Wind Power Predictions

5.4    Short-Term Power Prediction Models

5.5    Uncertainty, Ramps, and Variability

Probabilistic Forecasting • Ramp Forecasting • Variability Forecasting

5.6    Decision-Making and Value Derived from Wind Power Forecasts

5.7    Conclusions

Acknowledgments

References

5.1    Introduction

To optimize the scheduling of grid components, such as the power plant types explained in the introduction to this book during the unit commitment process, information is needed on the future development. The expected load is a major ...