Enterprise Dynamics Sourcebook

Chapter 7

Reasoning on Technology Uncertainties for Enterprise Transformation

William J. Bunting ^*

Contents

7.1 Introduction

7.1.1 Modeling Challenge

7.1.2 Enterprise Architecture Approach

7.2 Discussion of Key Concepts

7.2.1 Evidential Reasoning

7.2.2 Multientity Bayesian Networks (MEBN)

7.3 LSERA Method

7.3.1 LSERA Argument Model

7.3.1.1 LSERA Entities

7.3.1.2 LSERA Hypothesis Sets

7.3.1.3 LSERA Directed Relations

7.3.1.4 LSERA Evidence Credentials

7.3.1.5 LSERA Cause and Effect Criteria

7.3.1.6 LSERA IF—THEN Reasoning

7.3.2 LSERA Inference Model

7.3.2.1 LSERA MFrags

7.3.2.2 Local Probability Distributions

7.3.2.3 LSERA Combination Rule

7.3.2.4 LSERA Evidence Force

7.4 ELoS Example

7.4.1 EMTI Argument Model

7.4.2 EMTI Inference Model

7.5 ...