believe that if you toss a fair coin, and it comes up heads ten times in a row,
the chances of tossing a tail on the next toss are increased. In the case of inde-
pendent events, this is untrue and is called “the gambler’s fallacy.” I have also
heard it called “the maturity of chances.”
PROBABILITY AS A MATHEMATICAL MODEL
Probabilities represent a mathematical model of the world, similar to the
models we discussed in Chapter 3. However, like the other models, they cor-
respond to the world only approximately. For example, a tossed coin could, at
least in theory, land on its edge (this was the subject of a Twilight Zone episode).
Similarly, a die could, at least in theory, split in two when it is cast (this
occurred in one of Thomas Hardy’s novels). ...