Appendix A
Case Study on Forecasting Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells
Chapter Summary: This chapter demonstrates the technology forecasting process with a new emerging technology. The chapter discusses dye-sensitized solar cells as a potential next-generation solar technology. Each of the phases and many of the methods discussed in this book are examined in light of solar cells. A technology forecast of dye-sensitized solar cells is provided.
This case study illustrates the application of several technology forecasting methods. While it takes note of the book's chapter flow, not all of that material is addressed. The case study applies the forecasting approach for new and emerging science and technologies (NESTs) outlined in Table A.1 but not described elsewhere in the book.
Table A.1 Framework to Forecast NEST Innovation Pathways
| I. Understand the NEST and its technology delivery system (TDS) | Step A: Characterize the technology |
| Step B: Model the TDS | |
| II. Profile R&D and link to potential applications | Step C: Profile R&D |
| Step D: Profile innovation actors and activities | |
| Step E: Determine potential applications | |
| Step F: Engage experts | |
| III. Project and assess prospective innovation pathways | Step G: Lay out alternative innovation pathways |
| Step H: Explore innovation components | |
| Step I: Perform technology assessment | |
| IV. Report | Step J: Synthesize and report |
The topic of the study is dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs), which is an advanced form of solar cell (photovoltaic). ...
