Future Savvy: Identifying Trends to Make Better Decisions, Manage Uncertainty, and Profit from Change

CHAPTER 11

Questions to Ask

of Any Forecast

This page intentionally left blank

265

F

ORECASTS ARE AN INDISPENSABLE BUT HIGHLY

patchy guide to the world of tomorrow. We take

them seriously because understanding future condi-

tions and requirements is key to future success, but

we need to assert strong independence of mind as

to whether any forecast is valid. By asking tough

questions to quickly and effectively evaluate

forecasts, we can extract the value they possess,

without being duped by bias, cowed by expert

credentials, or bamboozled by fancy software.

The remainder of this chapter condenses the

argument of the book as a whole, thematically

grouping the test questions to ask of any forecast in

one easy-reference list.

Purpose

What is the purpose of the forecast? What can be gleaned

about why it exists, who put it out, or what the intention

of the forecaster was? Is the forecast upfront about

its purpose?

All forecasting is done for benefit. By recognizing the interests at

work behind a forecast, assessing what benefit or benefits are

sought by the forecaster or whoever commissioned the forecast,

one can make a better judgment as to potential strengths and weak-

nesses. We may ask, What effect or concerns is the forecast trying

to arouse? How is it legitimating a view that the forecaster or fore-

cast organization holds, or actions it wants to take or prevent oth-

ers from taking? What future change is sought or being legitimated?

Is the forecast future-aligning or future-influencing?

Forecast benefit falls into two main categories: future-aligning ben-

efit where forecasters anticipate change in order to adapt early and

successfully to it; or a future-influencing benefit, where forecasters

are trying to influence the future. Future-aligning approaches aim

to be objective in giving their best reading of a most likely out-

come or outcomes. They may fail, but the intention is there, so, on

balance, this approach will be more accurate. Future-influencing

forecasts aim to succeed on other terms—alerting and shaping opin-

ion, changing minds, and harnessing action.

Ideally, a forecast will be clear in distinguishing between a desir-

able (or ideal) outcome and a probable one, but this is made tricky

because often forecasts contain both future-aligning and influencing

aspects, and also because future-influencing forecasts are stronger if

they appear neutral and are therefore often disguised as such. Nev-

ertheless, a future-influencing intention can be identified by asking:

266

✧

FUTURE SAVVY

✧ Is the forecast widely publicized? If a forecast seeks pub-

licity, it is very likely to have future-influencing intent. A future-

aligning forecast is usually a competitive document, for the

benefit of the forecasters or those who commissioned it, and

is usually proprietary during the forecast period.

✧ Does it specify action to take in the external world? While

future-aligning forecasts often contain action recommenda-

tions, these are mainly inwardly focused, advising how to act

to promote organizational alignment with what is expected. In

a future-influencing forecast, by contrast, the forecaster in-

evitably asks the reader to act in the external world, to sign

up, speak up, or join up to help change the future.

✧ Is it a forecast of extremes? Future-influencing forecasts

are often pictures of extreme optimistic or pessimistic out-

comes—utopias to be aspired to or dystopias to be avoided—

which are a motivation tool in getting people to join a

future-influencing agenda. The future is very likely to contain

a mix of good and bad, just like the present and the past.

Specificity

Is the forecast mode predictive—spelling out what will

happen—or speculative, illuminating possible alternatives?

Although there is some overlap in practice, forecasts divide into

those that are trying to accurately predict the future versus those

that are trying to illuminate alternatives that may arise. The former

offers the benefit of advising what will happen but it is highly likely

to be wrong; the latter offers the benefit of capturing the spread of

plausible or probable outcomes (sometimes written up as scenar-

ios) but does not commit to a clear prediction.

CHAPTER 11: QUESTIONS TO ASK OF ANY FORECAST

✧

267