Future Think: How to Think Clearly in a Time of Change

Chapter 10. Demography

In a 2002 article about demography, The Economist quoted the philosopher Auguste Comte, who said, “Demography is destiny.” Demography is certainly one of the most critical determiners of future trends and their direction. For example, as you saw earlier in this book, the world population is aging to an extent that has never before happened. As of 2002, 600 million people in the world were older than 60. One million people turn 60 every month, and it is projected that, by 2050, some two billion people will be over 60. Because of below-replacement-level birthrates, for the first time in human history there will be more old people than young.

This will inevitably lead to a series of critical outcomes. Public and private retirement ...