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Future Trends from Past Cycles: Identifying share price trends and turning points through cycle, channel and probability analysis by Brian Millard

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7. Trends and the Market

The Oxford English Dictionary defines a trend as “general direction and tendency”. Wikipedia, that rather less authoritative but more popular source of information, defines a market trend as “a prolonged period of time when prices in a financial market are rising or falling faster than their historical average, also known as ‘bull’ and ‘bear’ markets, respectively”. What is meant by ‘historical average’ is not explained.

Wikipedia also defines trend estimation as “the statistical analysis of data to extrapolate trends”. It goes on to further define a market trend in these terms: “this principle incorporates the idea that market cycles occur with regularity and persistence. This belief is considered to be generally ...

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