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Future Trends from Past Cycles: Identifying share price trends and turning points through cycle, channel and probability analysis by Brian Millard

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11. Trend Turning Points (II)

In this chapter we will be examining more closely the properties of channel boundaries. The channel boundaries are of course constructed by drawing replicates of the centred average above and below the position of the average, and equidistant from it. Thus the channel is of constant depth throughout. This can be done by a computer program or by eye with a pencil and paper on the chart. The depth of the channel depends solely upon the level required for the probability that a new data point will lie within the channel. A good general value for this is 97.5%.

It is interesting that while the centred average is used to produce the boundaries, we can then use the boundaries which have been extrapolated to estimate ...

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