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Future Trends from Past Cycles: Identifying share price trends and turning points through cycle, channel and probability analysis by Brian Millard

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12. Trend Turning Points (III)

In the last chapter we saw that by careful analysis, using the peaks and troughs contained within a channel, we could establish whether the channel had changed direction in the gap between the latest data point and the last calculated point for the underlying centred average. This analysis usually entailed an adjustment to the curvature of the extrapolated boundaries. We also saw that when it came to channels based on very short-term averages, this method of extrapolation became more difficult because the averages were no longer smooth, owing to the influence of very short-term cycles. They also changed direction very quickly.

Here we will be investigating the behaviour of the intra-channel movements of the data. ...

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