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Future Trends from Past Cycles: Identifying share price trends and turning points through cycle, channel and probability analysis by Brian Millard

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13. Cycles and Sums of Cycles

We discussed the properties of cycles and how they appeared in market data in Chapter 6. It was clear that market cycles are constantly changing in amplitude, wavelength and phase, going through periods when a nominal cycle is reasonably stable and longer periods when it is not. It was also shown that a cycle only remains stable for around three to five complete sweeps, after which it reverts to its unstable behaviour.

The phrase ‘reasonably stable’ is used because we will never see a situation in which the amplitude and wavelength remain virtually constant for the duration of these three to five complete sweeps. We will have to limit ourselves to an allowable variation in these parameters, otherwise we will make ...

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