
Preface 2
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1 UNCERTAINTY, ALWAYS WITH US, BUT NOT ALWAYS RECOGNIZED
BY ECONOMISTS
Uncertainty plays a major role at the individual scale (how to invest or what medical
treatment to select) and at the societal scale (how to bolster the economy or confront
terrorism). Uncertainty also plays a leading role at the middle scale, in describing and
explaining market behavior. However, 50 years ago, in economists’ study of economy-
wide, market, and individual behavior, uncertainty did not receive much attention.
In an interesting twist, the great economists of the more distant past attended to the
overwhelming role of uncertainty, and the difficulties ...