Ellsberg’s report of a wide range of views on these issues played out in the subse-
quent literature. Whether or not he had any intuitive tendency for violation, Raiffa
(1961) offered what has come to be the standard argument to an individual who would
make the typical choices in the Three-Color Urn: If you really prefer a
1
over a
2
and a
4
over a
3
, then you presumably prefer a 50:50 coin flip of a
1
:a
4
versus a 50:50 coin flip
of a
2
:a
3
. But both coin flips reduce to a purely objective 50:50 coin flip of $100:$0. In
Raiffa’s view, “Something must give!” (1961, p.694)
Others have expressed a variety of views. Although ...
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