CHAPTER 19
Fooled by Experience
by Emre Soyer and Robin M. Hogarth
We rely on the weight of experience to make judgments and decisions. We interpret the past—what we’ve seen and what we’ve been told—to chart a course for the future, secure in the wisdom of our insights. After all, didn’t our ability to make sense of what we’ve been through get us where we are now? It’s reasonable that we go back to the same well to make new decisions.
It could also be a mistake.
Experience seems like a reliable guide, yet sometimes it fools us instead of making us wiser.
The problem is that we view the past through numerous filters that distort our perceptions. As a result, our interpretations of experience are biased, and the judgments and decisions we base ...
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