HBR's 10 Must Reads Collection (12 Books)

How to Avoid Catastrophe

Failures happen. But if you pay attention to near misses, you can predict and prevent crises. by Catherine H. Tinsley, Robin L. Dillon, and Peter M. Madsen

MOST PEOPLE THINK OF “near misses” as harrowing close calls that could have been a lot worse—when a firefighter escapes a burning building moments before it collapses, or when a tornado miraculously veers away from a town in its path. Events like these are rare narrow escapes that leave us shaken and looking for lessons.

But there’s another class of near misses, ones that are much more common and pernicious. These are the often unremarked small failures that permeate day-to-day business but cause no immediate harm. People are hardwired to misinterpret or ignore the ...