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How to Manage Project Opportunity and Risk: Why uncertainty management can be a much better approach than risk management by Stephen Ward, Chris Chapman

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Contents

Foreword to this edition by Mike Nichols

Foreword to the second edition with an update by Tony Ridley

Foreword to the first edition by Peter Wakeling

Preface and overview by the authors

Acknowledgements

Part I: Setting the scene

Chapter 1: Uncertainty in and around projects

Projects and the associated ‘asset/change’ concepts

Operations, corporate and project-related uncertainty

Ontario Hydro example

Operations, project and corporate aspects of a single asset

A lifecycle stage structure with a ‘purpose’ focus

Simplifications and elaborations for the nominal lifecycle

The seven Ws framework

Sources of uncertainty as both components and composites

Four different types of uncertainty component

A ‘performance lens’ and a ‘knowledge lens’ for uncertainty

Criteria–plan and knowledge–plan relationship structures

Conclusion

Chapter 2: Uncertainty, risk and opportunity

A minimum clarity approach to quantifying uncertainty

The probability-impact grid (PIG) – a tool that needs scrapping

Getting beyond the limitations of a focus on risk

Towards a focus on uncertainty management

Quantification of uncertainty for the Highways Agency

Developing initial trust and sustaining trust between key parties

A simple approach to contracting risk

Evaluating risk for option choices

An office manager’s photocopier decision

Conclusion

Chapter 3: Key motives for uncertainty management

Trust

Documentation

Developing a clarity efficient approach

Qualitative and quantitative analysis

Targets, expectations ...

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