Chapter 12. A Cyber Early Warning Model

Introduction by Jeffrey Carr

Ned Moran is a senior intelligence analyst for a well-known systems integrator, an adjunct professor in intelligence studies at Georgetown University, and a valued member of Project Grey Goose.

Originally Ned invited me to coauthor this paper for publication elsewhere, but due to my time limitations and the innovative nature of Ned’s proposed model of predicting cyber attacks, I asked if he would consent to having it published here first. He graciously agreed, and I think the book is richer for it.

The Challenge We Face

The U.S. currently faces the daunting challenge of identifying the actors responsible for launching politically motivated cyber attacks. According to Defense Secretary Robert Gates, the United States is “under cyber attack virtually all the time, every day.” It is estimated that more than 140 countries currently field cyber warfare capabilities. Additionally, sophisticated adversaries can route attacks through proxies and obfuscate their identities. These facts combine to make attribution of cyber attacks a difficult challenge.

During the Cold War, none of these challenges existed. Attacks between the United States and rival powers were few and far between. The pool of nuclear powers was limited to an exclusive club. Additionally, it was more difficult to route a nuclear attack through a proxy.

The heightened ability to detect and identify the source of nuclear or missile attack increased stability during ...

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