MISTAKE 39Do You Confuse Before-the-Fact Strategy with After-the-Fact Outcome?

I’m a big believer in diversification, because I am totallyconvinced that forecasts will be wrong. Diversification isthe guiding principle. That’s the only way you can livethrough the hard times. It’s going to cost you in the shortrun, because not everything will be going through the roof.—Paul Samuelson

Imagine that you are Phil Jackson, coach of the Los Angeles Lakers. It is the fifth game of the championship series, and your team is ahead three games to one. LeBron James has just scored a basket with 10 seconds to go, giving the Miami Heat a 1-point lead. You call a timeout to set up the last play. Your star, Kobe Bryant, has had a relatively poor game, scoring ...

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