JMP® Means Business: Statistical Models for Management

Chapter 19. Exponential Smoothing Models for Time Series Data

• 19.1 Introduction 542

• 19.2 Detail Example: 10-Year Treasury Note Closing Prices 543

• 19.3 Smoothing Models 550

  • 19.3.1 Simple Moving Averages 551

  • 19.3.2 Exponential Smoothing Models 554

  • 19.3.3 Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) 555

  • 19.3.4 Double Exponential Smoothing For Linear Trend (DES) 561

  • 19.3.5 Winters' Additive Seasonal Method 565

• 19.4 Summary 569

• 19.5 Problems 569

• 19.6 Case Study: Lockheed Martin Stock in Changing Times 572

• 19.7 References 573

19.1 Introduction

Managerial resource allocations are often based on forecasting demands for products, services, human resources, or material supplies. Many forecasts use time series data. Such data, recorded at regular intervals (minutes, hours, days, ...