Leading with Vulnerability

17Getting Past the Defense!

I present you with two urns, each containing 100 balls.

Urn A has an even mix of 50 black and 50 red balls. Urn B has an unknown mix of red and black balls.

Knowing this, which one of the following scenarios would you select?

1. A: Get $100 if red is drawn from urn A, or else get nothing.
2. B: Get $100 if black is drawn from urn A, or else get nothing.
3. C: Get $100 if red is drawn from urn B, or else get nothing.
4. D: Get $100 is black is drawn from urn B, or else get nothing.

When doing this experiment, participants don't show a preference between options A and B, which makes sense because the odds are the same, 50%.

However, most participants prefer A to C and B to D. In options A and B we again know that the odds are 50%, but in C and D we have no idea what the probabilities of outcomes are, so we avoid them.

Humans don't like uncertainty and we prefer outcomes and situations with low uncertainty over those where the uncertainty is higher even if those highly uncertain outcomes have a higher reward. Think about this in the context of vulnerability, which is a very uncertain feeling. It's not our default mode to be in. We try to avoid it even if there's a higher reward involved.

When we feel vulnerable, the immediate physiological reaction is that our body warns us of any potential threats, something we refer to as fight‐or‐flight. Many years ago, this would help us from getting eaten by lions. In organizations today, this manifests in emotional instead ...