ALL PILOTS TAKE CHANCES FROM TIME TO TIME, BUT KNOWING—NOT GUESSING—WHAT YOU CAN RISK IS OFTEN THE CRITICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GETTING AWAY WITH IT OR DRILLING A FIFTY-FOOT HOLE IN MOTHER EARTH.
CHUCK YEAGER, YEAGER: AN AUTOBIOGRAPHY, 1985
Overconfidence isn’t the only bias that has to be reconsidered when we combine the ability to influence outcomes and the need to outperform rivals. We also need to take a fresh look at the base rate bias.
The base rate bias was identified in the early 1970s by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. Imagine that at a busy intersection during evening rush hour, a taxicab clips a pedestrian and speeds away. A witness identifies it as one of the ...