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Left Brain, Right Stuff by Phil Rosenzweig

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9

WHERE MODELS FEAR TO TREAD

            I WAS SO ENAMORED OF THE POWER AND ELEGANCE OF THE MORE MATHEMATICAL ASPECTS OF THIS EMERGING FIELD THAT I IGNORED THE NON-MATHEMATICAL UNDERPINNINGS: HOW TO IDENTIFY A PROBLEM OR OPPORTUNITY TO BE ANALYZED, HOW TO SPECIFY THE OBJECTIVES OF CONCERN, HOW TO GENERATE THE ALTERNATIVES TO BE ANALYZED.

            HOWARD RAIFFA, “DECISION ANALYSIS: A PERSONAL ACCOUNT OF HOW IT ALL GOT STARTED AND EVOLVED,” OPERATIONS RESEARCH, 2002

In the preceding chapters we considered a number of elements of making great decisions. We made the distinction between outcomes we can influence and those we cannot, between performance that is absolute and relative, between decisions that lend themselves to rapid feedback and those ...

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