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Macroshifts Past and Present

WINSTON CHURCHILL ONCE REMARKED, “the further backward you look, the further forward you can see.” Since we want to see far enough forward to know what happens—or rather, what can happen—when today’s macroshift enters the critical phase, we begin by looking backward: at macroshifts in history. We do not expect to see the events of history repeat themselves, but the dynamic that drives history could well repeat. That will have much to teach us. Because George Santayana’s oft-quoted saying is not entirely mistaken: “those who ignore the past are obliged to repeat it.” Repeating, if not the macroshifts of the past, then the way people related to those macroshifts, could be dangerous. Indeed, it could spell ...

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