Chapter 3
Assessing Country Risk
Five states of risk management:
You know what you know.
You don’t know what you know.
You know what you don’t know.
You don’t know what you don’t know.
You know but you don’t want to know.
Professor Walter Ingo, New York University
Introduction
As has been noted in the previous chapters, politics and economics are inextricably linked. They do not exist in a vacuum and their impact on each other cannot be separated. Similarly, the link between probability and consequences also cannot be separated. Risk may simply be defined as risk = probability × consequences.1 In other words, the higher the probability that an event may occur, the greater its likely consequences. The word risk comes from the ancient Greek word ...
Get Managing Country Risk now with the O’Reilly learning platform.
O’Reilly members experience books, live events, courses curated by job role, and more from O’Reilly and nearly 200 top publishers.