Market Analysis Isn’t Brain Surgery

Michael N. Kahn, CMT

As important as you may think precision is in investing, market analysis of any kind is just not a precise endeavor. Sure, for an arbitrage trader moving millions of dollars, euros, or yen around the world, every decimal point is important. But when you are an average investor or even a smaller-scale professional, squeezing that last sixteenth of a point out of your trade of 500 shares does not add up to that much money.

The same thinking can be carried through to the analysis itself. Price patterns or moving averages are still arbitrary, no matter how many computers are used to derive them. The market is a living being and as such, it does not react to the world exactly the same way twice. ...