Marketing Management, 16th Edition

Forecasting Market Demand

Forecasting is the art of anticipating what buyers are likely to do under a given set of conditions. For major consumer durables such as appliances, research organizations conduct periodic surveys of consumer buying intentions, asking questions like Do you intend to buy an automobile within the next six months? Surveys also inquire into consumers’ present and future personal finances and expectations about the economy. They combine bits of information into a consumer confidence measure (Conference Board) or a consumer sentiment measure (Survey Research Center of the University of Michigan). In most markets, good forecasting is a key factor in success.

Companies commonly prepare a macroeconomic forecast first, followed ...